âThis has sparked unprecedented sales this year in suburban and rural parts of Canada and we expect this trend to continue in 2021.â. Condos are the easiest way for first time homebuyers to get into the market, with starter units going for as low as $150,000. The number of properties sold also increased by five per cent, from 8,139 in 2018 to 8,539 in 2019. In its latest housing market forecast, RBC predicted that the national benchmark price will grow by 8.4% to reach $669,000 this year. ), 52 per cent of Canadians would like to live closer to green spaces, 47 per cent would like better access to public amenities, 35 per cent would like to live closer to work, 37 per cent would like to live closer to public transit, 35 per cent would like to move to a different neighbourhood, 59 per cent strongly disagree with living near a retail cannabis store. Due to the stress test and increasing interest rates, we are seeing more buyers in traditionally affordable regions in Ontario unable to enter the market,â says Christopher Alexander, Executive Vice President and Regional Director, RE/MAX of Ontario-Atlantic Canada. Buyers are also not burdened by the mortgage stress test, as they were in 2018. The new OSFI mortgage qualification rules that come into effect on January 1, 2018 also impacted housing market activity toward the end of this year and are expected to slow activity in real estate markets across Canada in the first part of 2018. 2020 Canadian Real Estate Market Forecast--- CLICK SHOW MORE BELOW! At the beginning of the year, no one really knew what would lie ahead for the real estate industry (or any industry for that matter) due to COVID-19. Liveability continues to be important to Canadians, with more than half wanting to live closer to green spaces and shopping/dining locations. In order to find a balance between the home features theyâre looking for and affordability, many buyers are continuing to look at real estate markets outside of the countryâs largest urban centres. Royal LePage: Canadian home prices forecast to rise 5.5% by the end of 2021 as low inventory and unmet demand set to fuel price increases. York Region, Ont. A recent Leger survey conducted by RE/MAX found that more than half (51 per cent) of Canadians are considering buying a property in the next five years, especially those under the age of 45. Summary: National home sales rose 2% on a month-over-month (m-o-m) basis in January. Vancouver and Greater Vancouver are good examples of the steady activity thatâs anticipated to continue in 2021. Although demand remains high in both urban centres, limited inventory in the freehold market, the new 15 per cent foreign-buyer tax in Vancouver and the recent tightening of mortgage rules by the federal government are expected to soften market activity in the short term. Cities such as Ottawa and Windsor are sellerâs markets, showing substantial increases in average residential sale price at 11.7 and 11 per cent, respectively. Canada's housing market shattered records in July despite the economic uncertainty surrounding the COVID-19 pandemic -- and with the usually busy fall real estate … Rising interest rates, government policy changes and the mortgage stress test were all factors that contributed to the decline, which is expected to continue into 2019. Sudbury, Ont. A proportion of Canadians would also consider unconventional home financing options to realize their dream of ownership such as: purchasing a home with a family member (33 per cent); renting a room on a vacation rental site like Airbnb (15 per cent); renting out a room in their home (22 per cent); or even purchasing a home with a roommate (9 per cent). Moody’s economists forecasted a range that sees declines in all scenarios. Home ownership remains a priority for Canadians, with 53 per cent of respondents in a recent RE/MAX survey conducted by Leger expressing intent to purchase a home and 47 per cent expressing intent to do so in the next five to 10 years. Looking ahead to 2019, prices are expected to continue on this upward trajectory, with an expected increase of four per cent. Measures taken by the federal government to tighten mortgage insurance criteria for new home buyers is expected to temper local rst-time buyer activity across the country in the short term, but is not expected to have a long-term impact in most regions. This is up from 36 per cent at the same time last year. National home sales are forecast to rise by 7.5% to 518,100 units next year, with most of this increase reflecting a weak start to 2019 rather than a significant change in sales trends out to the end of next year.” 3 Kitchener-Waterloo, Ont. Cities such as Ottawa and Hamilton-Burlington have seen a massive spike in demand for luxury homes since the start of the pandemic. As oil prices continue to stabilize, both Calgary and Edmonton have experienced modest average residential sale price increases in 2017. For context for Toronto real estate market against the rest of Canada’s housing markets, is this chart/forecast from TD Bank. The forecast for the housing market … When it comes to the prospect of a second wave of COVID-19, 56 per cent of Canadians who are feeling confident in Canadaâs real estate market are still likely to buy or sell. While many economists predicted employment disruptions would negatively impact the Canadian housing market, the pandemic directly influenced only six per cent of Canadians to sell their home, according to the survey. This is compared to the 3.7 per cent increase that was predicted in late 2019. The survey also found that access to outdoor spaces was a key factor for many Canadians when considering purchasing a home, with 87 per cent agreeing that access to green space was important to them and 82 per cent agreeing that having a backyard was important. In Saskatchewan, both Regina and Saskatoon have experienced a buyersâ market which is set to prevail into 2019. The forecast calls for house prices nationwide to grow by an average of 2.2 per cent per year over the next five years. Thunder Bay, Ont. With solid economic growth and a vibrant housing market, Ottawa took fourth place for real estate prospects in our survey. Unsurprisingly, most provinces experienced a slowdown in March and April, with significant drops in activity up to 70 per cent year-over-year. ⢠Increased consumer confidence could be a key factor affecting the housing market in 2020 ⢠51% of Canadians are considering a home purchase in the next five years, up from 36% at the same time last year ⢠Only two in 10 Canadians say that the mortgage stress test negatively affected their ability to purchase a home in 2019. Buyer activity is expected to pick up slightly in the second half of 2017 if employment opportunities in the oil sector continue to gradually come back to the province. The Canadian economy witnessed significant improvement in 2019, with a GDP growth of nearly 3.7%. Get more insights and download the infographics: Victoria, BC Nanaimo, BC Vancouver, BC North Vancouver, BC West Vancouver, BC Tri-City (Greater Vancouver), BC Fraser Valley, BC Kelowna, BC Edmonton, AB Calgary, AB Saskatoon, SK Regina, SK Winnipeg, MB. Hamilton-Burlington, Ont. Move-up and move-over buyers are also impacting luxury segments in the province. Toronto is set to experience a strong housing market in 2020. Prices, however, have remained stable across the country. RE/MAX brokers across Canada were asked to provide an analysis on market activity during COVID-19 lockdowns, assessing how their regions have bounced back with easing restrictions. CANADIAN HOME PRICES EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY 1.7 PER CENT IN 2019. When it comes to recreational property markets in Canada, the regions surveyed for the report experienced a slight decrease in sales activity in March, similar to most major cities in Canada; however, similar to other markets, this picked up quickly by May. While the classification of âluxury homesâ is specific to each region and differs across the country by minimum pricing, Canadaâs overall luxury market has remained strong throughout the pandemic, with market conditions unchanged from the beginning of the year in most regions. The luxury market in Edmonton continues to be strong, with seemingly no impact felt by the pandemic. Thirty-one per cent of survey respondents said higher interest rates have not affected their ability to get an affordable mortgage so far, but the risk of future rate hikes, as indicated by RE/MAX brokers and agents, might affect these buyers in 2019. 15 January 2021. Vancouver is beginning to see more interest from move-up buyers instead of the foreign buyers who drove demand in Vancouverâs luxury market prior to COVID-19. Collingwood, Ont. Despite the disruption of the virus, consumers are feeling optimistic, according to a Leger survey conducted on behalf of RE/MAX Canada, with 52 per cent of Canadians eyeing real estate as one of the best investment options in 2021, and expressing confidence that the Canadian housing market will remain steady next year. RE/MAX FALL 2020 HOUSING MARKET OUTLOOK REPORT, RE/MAX 2020 HOUSING MARKET OUTLOOK REPORT, RE/MAX 2019 HOUSING MARKET OUTLOOK REPORT, RE/MAX 2018 HOUSING MARKET OUTLOOK REPORT, RE/MAX 2017 HOUSING MARKET OUTLOOK REPORT, RE/MAX 2020 Housing Market Outlook Report, Positive Signs in Local Real Estate Markets Across Saskatchewan, A Closer Look at the Trends Across the York Region Housing Market, Bank of Canada Makes Interest Rate Announcement, Toronto Real Estate Bubble? Hottest real estate markets in Canada . The resale condo market, on the other hand, now represents almost 37 per cent of total residential sales, with its relative affordability fueling the rise of vertical growth. In re-contacting the respondents who lost confidence about their local housing market from the RE/MAX Global Outlook Report survey that was conducted in May 2020, asking if their confidence level in their market has changed since the start of the pandemic, 40 per cent are now as confident as they were before the pandemic. An uptick in new listings is anticipated for the fall market, now that buyers and sellers are more comfortable engaging in the housing market, with all of Ontario now in phase three of re-opening. While average residential sale prices for all properties increased by two per cent, from $1,030,829 in 2017 to $1,049,362 in 2018, the number of sales dropped by 30 per cent. Canadians are almost equally split in their confidence in Canadian housing market, with 39% as confident as they were before the pandemic, and 37% slightly less confident. Oakville, Ont. The ups and downs are always experienced in the market. The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic will not deter Canadian housing prices or sales activity from reaching new heights in 2021, according to RBC Economics. (February 2020), Easing the stress test, for now... (February 2020), Are Toronto home prices sky-bound again? In Atlantic Canada, Halifax and Saint John have experienced solid price appreciation of six and five per cent, respectively. Ontario In Toronto, rising interest rates and the mortgage stress test were the two major factors affecting market activity this past year, with average sale prices dropping by four per cent from $822,572 in 2017 to $789,181 in 2018, and unit sales down by 16 per cent. âDespite the tragic impacts of the pandemic, our optimism in the strength of Canadaâs housing market has always remained,â says Elton Ash, Regional Executive Vice President, RE/MAX of Western Canada. “To have a vibrant real-estate market, you need the influx of new Canadians,” he said. This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply. Barrie, Ont. When it comes to where Canadians would prefer to live – urban, suburban or rural – they are evenly split, with roughly three in 10 preferring to live in each area. While economic recovery is expected to take some time, the luxury market is thriving, with prospective investors in cannabis and migrant speculators driving this new segment. Prairies Slowing economic conditions in Alberta have contributed to a decrease in average residential sale prices in Edmonton, from $393,003 in 2017 to $379,539 in 2018. Analysis of national and provincial trends in housing affordability and developments in major metropolitan housing markets. Ottawa. This trend is stronger among Canadians under the age of 55 than those in the 55+ age group. Reduced foreign buyer activity has opened up more opportunity for local buyers in Greater Vancouverâs condo market. Leading indicators from RE/MAX brokers and agents across the Canadian housing market point to a strong market for the remainder of 2020. Heading into the new year, 84 per cent of RE/MAX brokers and agents surveyed are anticipating sellersâ markets. Furthermore, 40 per cent of Canadians realized that their home needed renovations during the pandemic, and 29 per cent discovered that they need more space.  According to our brokers and agents across the RE/MAX network, Canadaâs fall market is expected to see spring market-like activity.â. While average residential sale prices for all properties increased by two per cent, from $1,030,829 in 2017 to $1,049,362 in 2018, the number of sales dropped by 30 per cent. Get more insights and download the infographics: Fredericton, NB Saint John, NB Moncton, NB Halifax, NS Charlottetown, PEI St. Johnâs, Newfoundland. Regions with low case counts of COVID-19, such as Halifax, Charlottetown and Saint John experienced slower activity in March, but the decline was less pronounced than that of some Ontario and Western Canada markets. This is down from 48 per cent at the same time last year. Niagara Region, Ont. They also provided a prediction of market activity for the remainder of 2020. Mississauga, Ont. The increase is attributed to consumersâ adjustment to the mortgage stress test and increased purchasing power. Average residential sale prices increased by six per cent year-over-year from $674,930 in 2017 to $718,915 in 2018, with prices expected to decrease by three per cent in 2019. âThe drop in sales in key markets across British Columbia can be partially attributed to Canadiansâ increasing difficulty in getting an affordable mortgage in the region,â says Elton Ash, Regional Executive Vice President, RE/MAX of Western Canada. London, Ont. Analysis of national and provincial trends in housing affordability and developments in major metropolitan housing
âWhile COVID-19 lockdowns slowed the Canadian housing market at the start of a typically busy spring market, activity bounced back by early summer in many regions, including Vancouver and Toronto,â says Elton Ash, Regional Executive Vice President, RE/MAX of Western Canada. Durham Region, Ont. Both luxury markets are could likely remain balanced for the remainder of the year, according to RE/MAX luxury specialists. âSouthern Ontario is witnessing some incredibly strong price appreciation, with many regions still seeing double-digit gains,â says Christopher Alexander, Executive Vice President and Regional Director, RE/MAX of Ontario-Atlantic Canada. 35% of RE/MAX brokers indicate that “move-over” buyers from other cities and provinces will continue to spark market activity in 2021 markets. In Calgary, the average residential sale price rose by approximately two per cent, to $487,931 up from $478,100 in 2016. Moody’s: Canadian Real Estate Prices Drop 8-30%. RE/MAX brokers anticipate a 10-per-cent increase in average residential sale price in Halifax for the remainder of the year. With Ontario being one of the hardest-hit provinces in Canada, markets like Niagara, Mississauga and Kitchener-Waterloo experienced significant drops in activity, but bounced back aggressively in June as economies began reopening. Ottawa, ON, February 16, 2021 – Statistics released today by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) show national home sales set another all-time record in January 2021. housing markets. Hamilton-Burlington, Ont. Buyers and sellers remain relatively tentative, but the cityâs ongoing evolution into a major tech and distribution hub, as seen with Amazonâs recent announcement that Calgary will house one of the companyâs key distribution centres, is expected to increase confidence in the real estate market moving forward. Canadians on the move: Not an exodus, but the re-location trend across Canadian housing market is real RE/MAX Canada expects average residential prices to rise 4% to 6% in 2021. Liveability continues to be important to Canadians, with more than half wanting to live closer to green spaces, work and better access to public amenities. RE/MAX brokers estimate a five-per-cent increase in average residential sale price in Toronto for the remainder of the year. âThe situation created by the introduction of the mortgage stress test this year, as well as continually increasing interest rates, means more Canadians will be priced out of the market. The Toronto real estate market has shown no signs of slowing down. Markets in Calgary and Edmonton, on the other hand, are currently balanced, which is anticipated to continue into 2021. Heading into fall, 50 per cent of RE/MAX brokers and agents surveyed anticipate a modest increase in average residential sale prices. Although the senior population is downsizing, immigration to Winnipeg from urban centres such as Toronto and Vancouver (15,000 people move to Manitoba every year) is expected to drive sales going into 2019. Communities such as Ottawa and London are sellersâ markets, showing increased growth in average residential sale price. High inventory continues to be a factor in many regions including Regina, Montreal, Saint John and St. Johnâs, offering a good selection of product to first-time and move-up buyers in these cities. Throughout the years, we have monitored them closely and reported our key findings in Emerging Trends in Real Estate®, one of the most highly regarded and widely read forecast reports in the industry. âThe situation created by the introduction of the mortgage stress test this year, as well as continually increasing interest rates, means more Canadians will be priced out of the market. A probability sample of the same size would yield a margin of error of +/- 2.51 per cent, 19 times out of 20. This is expected to persist in 2021 according to RE/MAX Canada brokers in the region. However, the cityâs aging population and high rate of outbound migration is expected to have an impact on housing market activity at some point. Muskoka, Peterborough and the Kawarthas, and Whistler are all experiencing sellersâ market conditions, with pent-up demand and low inventory driving a modest increase in pricing. This is expected to continue in 2021. They’re predicting a very big return of home sales in 2021, yet moderate price gains for the most part. According to the RE/MAX broker network in western Canada, sellersâ markets are likely in both regions next year, driven in large part by low inventory levels, low interest rates and high demand, as was the case in 2020. âThis is particularly true for first-time buyers and single Millennials, as evident in cities like Brampton, Kingston and Durham. balcony, pool etc. The GTAâs condo market also saw price appreciation of 22 per cent in 2017, as the average sale price for a condo rose to an estimated $523,437, up from $429,241 in 2016. Niagara Region, Ont. While the cityâs unemployment rate continues to remain high compared to the rest of Canada, the population is increasing, with more people moving to the city from other parts of the province. If the measures currently in place across the country are lifted before the end of the second quarter, Royal LePage is forecasting that overall prices for Canadian homes will end 2020 relatively flat, with the aggregate value up 1% year-over-year to $653,800. Latest Report: Canada’s housing market ended 2020 on a (very) high note. In more severe unemployment scenarios, the firm sees prices falling upwards of 30%. âWeâve seen a lot of anecdotal evidence since the summer that households are considering significant lifestyle changes by relocating to less-dense cities and neighbourhoods,â says Christopher Alexander, Executive Vice President and Regional Director, RE/MAX of Ontario-Atlantic Canada. Leger’s online panel has approximately 400,000 members nationally and has a retention rate of 90 per cent. Canada Market Outlook 2021 | CBRE. âDespite the tragic impacts of the pandemic, our optimism in the strength of Canadaâs housing market has always remained, and current market activity further exemplifies this. âThanks to the regionâs resilient economy, staggering population growth and relentless development, the 2020 market looks very optimistic.â. The decrease is attributed to actual and perceived impacts of the mortgage stress test and rising interest rates on housing affordability. The survey found that Canadians are almost equally split in their confidence in Canadaâs real estate market, with 39 per cent as confident as they were prior to the pandemic, and 37 per cent slightly less confident. Many buyers put their plans on hold at the peak of COVID-19 lockdowns, but they returned to the market quickly to make up for lost time. RE/MAX Canada is anticipating healthy housing price growth in 2021, with move-up and move-over buyers continuing to drive activity in many regions across the Canadian housing market. This strong growth is expected to continue into 2020, with Ottawaâs new LRT system impacting surrounding development and Windsorâs continued affordability attracting young professionals to the area. Even experts were stumped on what would happen to the Canadian housing market and what trends they would expect to … Much like the rest of the country, the majority of Atlantic Canada is a sellersâ market, which is anticipated to continue next year. British Columbia Reduced foreign buyer activity has opened up more opportunity for local buyers in Greater Vancouverâs condo market. âLooking ahead, government financial aid programs may be coming to an end in September, which could potentially impact future activity; however, the pent-up demand and low inventory dynamic may keep prices steady and bolster activity for the remainder of 2020. Average residential sale price is expected to increase by two per cent in 2019. Modest price increases are expected in 2019, as the RE/MAX 2019 Housing Market Outlook estimates the average sales price to increase by 1.7 per cent. In Moncton, Halifax and Saint John, housing activity has been driven primarily by out-of-province buyers and move-up buyers who have either expedited retirement plans or are working from home and no longer need to be in an office. Canadian Real Estate Market Forecast Just like the US housing market, the real estate market in Canada showed remarkable strength in 2020. A separate survey of RE/MAX brokers and agents found 83 per cent predict rising interest rates will make it more difficult for Canadians to purchase a home next year. In fact, many suburban markets across the country have been heavily impacted by out-of-town buyers, a segment that is expected to drive market activity in 2021. According to RE/MAX brokers, average prices in these recreational markets are estimated to remain stable for the remainder of 2020. Specific figures: ⢠62% of Canadians would like to live near shopping/dining locations ⢠59% would like to live closer to green spaces ⢠30% would like to live closer to work ⢠36% would like to live closer to public transit. Sudbury, Ont. North Bay, Ont. Kingston, Ont. 2021 PREDICTION #1: Canadian real estate prices will go down Opinion is split on where prices are headed in hot housing markets like the greater Toronto and Vancouver areas, and for the country at large, which saw a booming summer real estate market carry its momentum into fall. Aggregate price of a home in the Greater Toronto Area forecast to rise 5.75%. Only two in 10 survey respondents said the mortgage stress test has negatively  impacted their ability to purchase a home. In Edmonton, sales rose by an estimated five per cent year-over-year, from $357,916 to $375,788 in 2017, with a variety of new infrastructure projects, including construction on the Valley Line expansion of the LRT system, expected to contribute to increased activity in the coming years. This is being attributed to high demand and low supply, coupled with shifting home-buying trends toward local liveability factors such as more space, larger yards and closer proximity to amenities like parks. RE/MAX brokers and agents were asked to provide an analysis on their local market activity in 2020, as well as an outlook for 2021. The average residential sale price increased 13 per cent in Greater Vancouver to approximately $1,020,300 and rose 17 per cent in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) to an estimated $725,857. In a modest scenario, the firm sees prices falling 8% over the next year. New CMHC report says Canadian housing market could see a 14% plunge (The Star, Jan 21) These are Canada's fastest growing communities as cities see record exodus (CTV, Jan 19) Toronto rent was down 20.4 per cent in December while real estate sales were way up (NOW, Jan 19) RE/MAX brokers and agents are surveyed on market activity and local developments. Alberta continues to experience slowing economic conditions, which have contributed to a decrease in average residential sale prices in Calgary, from $478,088 in 2018 to $460,532 in 2019. Receive an email alert as soon as this publication goes live on the RBC Economics site. RE/MAX is calling for a leveling out of the highs and lows that characterized the Canadian housing market in 2019, particularly in Vancouver and Toronto, as we move into 2020. Actual (not seasonally adjusted) activity was up 35.2% year-over-year (y-o-y). Canada’s federal housing agency has warned that average house prices could fall by up to 18 per cent over the next 12 months – a dismal prediction that’s being challenged by RE/MAX based on market activity from coast to coast.